Sunday, July 16, 2017

conservatives

       “They’re called conservatives; what do they conserve?”  Conserve: protect something, (especially an environmentally or culturally important place or thing) from harm or destruction. Based on their political behavior we seem to have a contradiction, but that is based on emphasizing the parenthetical. They seem opposed to conservation.  First of all we must remember that neither conservative nor liberal is a species.  Until recently there was more variation within either grouping than between them. They even overlapped. Both sides talk Flat Tax, but with entirely different goal. Unfortunately we have become more polarized since Vietnam.  Conservative used to mean: A person who is averse to change and holds to traditional values and attitudes, typically in relation to politics or simply safe.  In most professions conservative means doing what you know will probably work or at least do no harm.
Many so called conservatives today do not seem to want to preserve what works but rather to re-implement policies that it seems will be to their benefit, many of which are old abandoned policies like Jim Crow laws, intrusions into personal life that should be nobody’s business, and especially less tax for the rich.  They seem to be pro fossil fuels and pro war, any war, like the War-On-Drugs. War and fossil fuels are highly profitable for some.
There are different kinds of conservatives, and I won’t claim to identify them all. The Conservative leadership is dominated by white, old, rich, men (WORMS) e.g. McConnell, Gingrich, defending trickle-down economics. To give them credit they are very good at raising banners that collect followers. Second are the ideologues that read Ayn Rand and believe in a conservative philosophy much like a religion, for example the “Militia” that occupied the Malheur Wildlife Refuge. They cling to what is or they believe should be theirs. The largest group is ordinary people who tend to agree with those around them who happen to act conservative because of their environment: police, military, small town, or Bible-Belt. They watch Fox (Faux) News and call for less government rules for themselves, but law-and-order for those that they perceive as undeserving, e.g. minorities, and “liberals”.  
The typical conservatives have not been victim of discrimination so they seldom perceive it as a problem.  Some however have started to portray themselves as persecuted when they are told not to discriminate. Very few conservatives are a member of a minority, but there are exceptions: Carson, Thomas.  Conservatives tend to support discrimination such as complex voter ID rules, and regressive taxation e.g. GET (sales tax) on food, but not aircraft maintenance.   They also tend to lockstep on issues.  Agree on every principal or be labeled a ‘Liberal’. A liberal might support a conservative idea, but seldom the reverse

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." - Bertrand Russell

          Conservatives seem to consider Liberal the worst insult without ever defining Liberal and apply it to anyone who disagrees.  They often give it the same inflection as vermin.  American conservatism tends to unify on many seemingly disparate issues, pro-life, but anti-health-care subsidy, lower taxes, but mainly for the rich, trillions for defense, but not one red cent for Planned Parenthood. Liberals on the other hand are famously disorganized, because by definition a liberal is one open to new ideas, albeit sometimes too open.  Liberals I know are like WillI am not a member of an organized political party; I’m a DemocratRogers. Liberals can agree to disagree and still be friends. They get angry and complain about perceived injustice, sometimes for themselves, but often just for others.  Liberals never seem to promote hate of people.  I hope I am wrong, but conservatives seem to use fear and hate to ‘conserve’ i.e. protect white, old, rich, male privilege. 



   

Who knew

Everybody knew health care would be complicated!   It’s not just the health care itself that is complicated.  To some extent that is unavoidable; humans are complex and fussy about their comfort.  The health care delivery system does a pretty good job for most Americans most of the time. 
Unfortunately the health care financial system is like a platypus redesigned by a dysfunctional committee using meth.  Actually you can’t really call it a system, because it’s an uncoordinated conglomeration of semi-autonomous entities.  I can’t name them all, can you?  First, in the news, is the GOPcare replacement for ACA (aka Obamacare) then, Medicare and Medicaid. That’s just the Federal Civilian programs.  Then pubic private partnerships like Queens.  The military has their own, plus CHAMPUS for dependents, and don’t forget the VA.  On the civil – aka, free market - side we have HMO’s like Humana and Kaiser.  We also have insurers like Blue Cross (HMSA), and Aetna.
Health care providers work hard and deserve to be paid, the problem is that each payer has a different schedule of what they will pay and when.  If the payment is too attractive the unnecessary happens.  If the payment is stingy, necessary care may be delayed or forgone; providers have to beg and borrow to get paid.
One reason America spends more than any other country and has mediocre results is that the “system” is configured to insure that at least 20% of health care dollars are siphoned off as insurance profit and operating cost.  Hospitals bill for every penny with a huge markup:  (cotton ball $0.09, Aspirin $0.48) spending more to account for stuff than to buy it.  To get paid they need an extensive detailed cost collection system, like a factory, but unlike a factory every unit is unique and every hour is different.
The ACA was crippled from the start, because it is an assigned risk pool.  It gets the leftovers after the profitable population has been scooped up.  The ACA carriers got all the high risk poorer, older, sicker patients with bad habits.  The low risk young-and-healthy have no motivation to enroll.
What are the options, besides more of same?
One is a single payer system. The providers would not spend time figuring who pays how much for each element of a service. There would be less duplication of effort, but someone would still have to tally up a bill and someone else to negotiate a payment and eventually pay it.  Automatic payment has a frightening potential for abuse.
Another is National Health Service:  Everyone pays a tax like we do for other government service.  Everyone gets treated; providers get standard compensation.  It’s run much like the Fire Department.  Sure some people would overconsume but how many?  It has to include everyone especially Congress.
Third option, take all the money the government and industry spend on health insurance and put it in a pool.  Everyone gets a stipend adjusted for age and demographics.  They can spend it on insurance, HMO, or even a Medical Savings Account (a naive option).   The existing providers can compete for the business.  The idea of a truly free market for health care is almost ludicrous though; nobody can negotiate in an emergency and the products are way too complicated for the buyer to comparison shop. Individuals have no real bargaining power.
GOPcare: Free market solution, chose your own plan, pay with tax credits for those who earn too little to pay taxes, or do without.
I know you’re thinking.  (I would be)  “OK, wise guy what would you do?”  I would have a small select non-partisan committee. Nine members plus staff like the Supreme Court examine the National Health Services of large countries.  Determine which one is most effective, and copy it exactly.  Don’t let Congress try to improve it because when it comes to health, failure is not an option.




Automobile


The automobile takes a lot of criticism, some of it deserved.  Yes, they consume fossil fuels and contribute to air pollution, but engineers are working on that and things have gotten much better.  The worrisome criticism is the number of fatalities, and injuries.  It’s not as safe as airlines, but then Island Air does not come to my door. Not quite as safe as busses that only pass my community 6 times a day (or not) and seldom go where I need to.  What if I need to go to 3 places or 10?  Think of the things you could not do without your car.
Critics forget two important things. The fatality rate is relatively low compared to the alternatives and for the benefits autos confer.  I did lot of research for my accident analysis books.  It’s hard to locate comparable data for injury accidents relative to walking, horses or bicycles but the available data suggests it’s much higher per mile. Horses bite, kick, run wild, pollute and carry disease.  Planners feared in 1890 that New York City would soon be uninhabitable due to horse manure.  The gross accident numbers for non-motorized travel injury appear small because so few miles are traveled.
The automobile is the flying carpet of Arabian Nights. It takes you where you want to go, when you want, quickly in any level of comfort you are willing to pay for and you can take the family.    Henry Ford did more for common people than any statesman.  His inexpensive Model T gave the working man the power to go anywhere to get a better deal: better wages, hours, or working conditions.  Farmers got the ability to take produce where they got the best price and all of us the ability to shop where prices and service are better.  Kekei go to better schools.   It has been a great equalizer, the elderly and disabled can travel as quickly, and almost as comfortably as the privileged.  You can describe middle-class as car owners.
How many lives are saved every year by the motor ambulance and fire truck?  How much would fresh groceries cost without refrigerated trucks to distribute them? How would you get fresh food home without your car?  Would it even be available or would you be content with bread and beans?
Cars changed our attitude towards strangers.  Driving or walking we have learned to trust drivers to not put us in danger. Some of us pick up hitchhikers, and sometimes hitch a ride to solve a problem, trusting strangers. To facilitate cars we paved the roads almost everywhere, and they are clean.  Before, paving was only in the wealthy areas and even those roads were mostly rough filthy cobblestone.  Filthy rods make life dirty.  There is the sheer pleasure of driving, being free.  I could go on, but plainly motor vehicles improve our lives immensely.  True there is a cost in injuries, but evidence convinced me that it more than offsets the injuries and deprivation there would be without them.  
Our right to travel freely is under assault.  In the name of Zero Fatalities®, an admirable goal, speed limits are lowered with totalitarian enforcement. This European congested city, pedestrian oriented strategy cannot reduce crashes, because it creates chaos.   Can you imagine cultivated traffic jams, or $3000 speeding tickets? The Department of Transportation proposes such unrealistic measures toward that goal. They claim that no one dies from congestion, but traffic delay wastes thousands of lifetimes, one minute at a time.  Why would you cause it on purpose?  When the National 55 mph speed limit was repealed state speed limits went up and traffic fatalities went down!  A car trapped in gridlock seems safe but that’s not what cars are for.
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a monthly column for West Hawaii Today. E-mail obenskik@gmail.com




Why healthcare

      
1790 A yellow fever epidemic killed 10 percent of Philadelphia’s population. During epidemics everyone lived in fear, sometimes there were not enough healthy people to do the work.
Every house had a pit privy in back and a well out front, many wells were contaminated. Disease led city officials to hire Benjamin Latrobe to build a pumping station in 1801. He pumped water from the Schuylkill River, into wooden tanks and pipes.   We know that having abundant clean water to drink and wash sharply lowers infection rates. They had been losing 400 residents a year to cholera, afterward less than 10.  Today we take clean water for granted, but engineers and epidemiologist consider it the most important advancement of all time
1871 Union veterans Col. William Church and Gen. George Wingate formed the National Rifle Association, not for political purpose or personal gain. Their motivation was to reduce the time and cost of training city bred inductees who lacked marksmanship skills so we could have better defense.  
1896 The British army was dissatisfied with the sickly condition of recruits.  To strengthen their military they campaigned for and ultimately passed the National Insurance Act of 1911.  Compulsory health insurance was provided for low paid workers. The worker contributed fourpence.  An estimated 13 million workers came to be covered under this scheme.  It evolved into the National Health Service
Also 1896, Robert Baden-Powell, serving in Rhodesia, met Frederick Russell Burnham, the American-born Chief of Scouts.  During their patrols Burnham taught Baden-Powell woodcraft; skills little known in the British Army but well-known to the American scout. Baden-Powell was concerned that soldiers lacked the skills to survive outdoors weakening the army.  He published Scouting for Boys, describing the skills of frontiersmen and indigenous Americans starting Boy Scouts to make better soldiers.
1914 Henry Ford doubled the wages at Ford Company, not out of generosity.  Poor attendance and high turnover were making it hard to keep his factories running.  He became one of the richest men in history but also created the modern middle class.  Workers could buy the cars, creating a demand for more production and more workers.  He also set up schools for immigrant workers to learn to read and write English, so they could be more productive and he could make more.
1933 Henry J. Kaiser and other large construction contractors had formed an insurance consortium to meet their workers' compensation obligations, but the costs were too high and the only hospital was failing. Harold Hatch, an engineer-turned-insurance-agent suggested that the insurance companies pay Dr. Garfield a fixed amount per day, per covered worker, up front. This solved the hospital’s immediate money troubles and, at the same time, enabled Dr. Garfield to emphasize maintaining health and safety rather than merely treating illness and injury. Thus, prepayment came to America. For five cents per day, workers were provided this new form of health coverage. For an additional five cents per day, workers could also receive coverage for non-job related medical problems. Thousands of workers enrolled, and the hospital became a financial success. They profited by helping others.
All of these stories and countless others show the wisdom of providing essentials such as health care. We should not think of public health service as a give-away. When we invest tax dollars to immunize other children we protect our own children from those same diseases. The Constitution admonishes the government “to promote the general welfare.”  Healthy people are smarter, happier, safer and more productive; less likely to go on strike, resort to self-medication, drugs, alcohol and other things that lead to crime.  The young and healthy who do not need care today can think of it as insurance for when they will need care. Universal health care is the smart thing to do.
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a semi-monthly column for West Hawaii Today. E-mail obenskik@gmail.com



Sideshow


We had a small group for dinner once –not quite 100 people- and I overheard a guest say “Everyone knows that we choose our own parents.” I interrupted him to say “That’s funny not everyone, because I didn’t and still don’t “but he ignored me and continued his new-age-astrolo-babble.  I have to admit that some famously rich and powerful people had the good sense to pick parents who left them an inexhaustible money machine:  William Randolph Hearst, (all the silver in Nevada) and Howard Hughes, (Hughes tool, drills for all the oil wells in the world) come to mind.  You can probably know half a dozen more. They don’t advertise their silver spoon birth, but wind up in politics or Hollywood. This is not as exclusive a company as it might sound. Ivanka and Jared had the good sense pick wealthy parents, as did the Golfer-In-Chief.  What could you have accomplished if you had inherited $40 million?  
What a sideshow, much sound and fury accomplishing nothing but a shoo-in nomination to the Supreme Court. Repeal Obamcare, repeal Obamcare, repeal Obamc….. Executive Orders displayed with the pride of an eight year old coloring inside the lines.  A list of things promised to accomplish immediately, well maybe soon: completed zero.  Attempts to unring the bell, repeal other orders or regulations, but are more like vague permission to not fully comply. Poorly written new regulations quickly deemed illegal. This method is like setting fire to the house to get rid of the fleas.  Drain the swamp, but only enough to give the alligators a bigger advantage over the sucker-fish.  Be careful: while you watch the sideshow someone is picking your pocket, then they max out your credit cards or steal your car.
Fortunately most bureaucrats did their job, and obeyed the law.  Obeying orders is not a defense, but doing the right thing usually is. It also lets you sleep. Unsurprisingly a judge sitting on an island in the Pacific, that happens to be in a State, this little State, can block an illegal order;  that’s how it’s supposed to work. We have a complex system of checks and balances, not only with three branches of government, but 50 State governments, each with three branches.  The branches have branches, House and Senate, Grand Juries and Special Prosecutors, U.S. Marshalls and the CBO.  There are NGOs like the ACLU, NRA, PTA and a free press.  The beauty of a free press is that they compete for attention try to expose fakes.   
“No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”  HL Mencken 1926
The Emperor-new-clothes has lived by this advice.  Surprises every day, seemingly random picks for high posts have started to backfire. There are some good ones, and some, well let’s hope. It’s just a matter of who, like James ‘Watergate’ McCord, spills the beans first to avoid jail, and how many henchmen go to Club Fed.  Does Mr. Ratings Machine declare “mission accomplished” and retire before the GOP finds the fortitude to impeach? I don’t know if they will do it to save the country, but probably will to protect Party-unity.  You would think repealing Obamacare was the nation’s highest priority, like “Get Osama bin Laden” was; well after Party-unity. No wait, the highest priority was making Obama a one term President. Crime rate peaked around 1991 so Sessions wants to take justice back to 1973. If you are not confused you have not been paying attention.  Mind your pockets the main event is yet to come.

Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a semi-monthly column for West Hawaii Today. E-mail obenskik@gmail.com




Taxes

Don’t tax you. Don’t tax me. Tax that fellow behind the tree Russel B. Long, probably.
The history of taxation is a history of unfairness there has probably never been or ever will be a fair tax.  What can we do?  It sounds fair to tax everyone their portion of the County budget. Five hundred million dollar County budget divided by 200,000 people comes to $2500 each. Some families could not pay that if you took everything they own.
To add to unfairness state law limits a county to a few sources. Property tax, GET (sales tax), Fuel tax, TAT (transient occupancy tax)
Money is like manure. If you spread it around it does a lot of good. But if you pile it up in one place it stinks like hell. Clint Jr. Murchison 
I sweated my way through Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, gave up halfway, but tried again when I learned that it included recommendations.  The most constructive form of taxation is one that limits the gross accumulation of wealth.
One way the County can do that is property tax, but that has problems.  To determine the tax one needs to value the property.  We could tax all land at the same rate, but obviously some land like beachfront is worth much more than other, like mauka desert.  It does at least aim at the accumulation of wealth, but can fall particularly hard on farmers because they need a lot of real property i.e. land, to be viable. Property tax also discourages the preservation of natural features that pay tax, but provide no income to the owner. There are exceptions granted for things like hospitals, schools and houses of worship. There is the tax windfall when the neighbor’s farm turns into a shopping center and adjacent land suddenly has a higher appraisal. So that which sounds simple gets complicated. Thus value based on similar property sales may be the best we can do.
GET: Just an insidious and vastly complicated sales tax that puts the government finger in every single transaction.  The County is allowed to add a surcharge which adds complexity but raises little additional revenue.  Like all sales based taxes it falls hardest on those with the least ability to pay or avoid and puts an accounting burden on small business.
Fuel tax:  Sounds equitable, but on Hawaii the most common fuel purchase is gasoline. Who purchases the most? Low paid workers who live in Kau or Puna and commute 80 miles a day in an old car that gets 12mpg.  Maybe the fuel tax could be lower in Kau and Puna.  ­
TAT: This was supposed to be shared with the counties, but the State keeps taking a bigger bite, because they can.  Of course the State and Honolulu County are almost inseparable. So essentially Honolulu gets the governors 4 votes making 5 votes and the other 3 counties get one vote each.
No one likes to pay taxes, but many of us don’t mind too much if we feel the rate is fair. What is fair? First the rate for an individual, family or business should not cause hardship or depravation. Like the Federal Income tax, progressive with an exemption so that low income people don’t have to starve to pay their tax. They still pay plenty of other taxes indirectly because taxes are built into everything that they buy.  At the other end of the scale are the truly wealthy.  It would take an extremely high tax rate to cause them to actually suffer, unless you think doing without champagne popsicles a 100 foot yacht and two villas in the South of France as suffering. Can property tax be progressive with rates that rise along with increasing valuation? Rate times    value to the 1.02 power.  
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a semi-monthly column for West Hawaii Today. E-mail obenskik@gmail.com



  

It;s OK to be offended


June second when I read Henry Scroggin’s notorious letter I could not decide if really meant what he said, or was it irony. The firestorm of replies suggests to me that people took him seriously.  He has not yet disavowed the interpretation. Just when that storm looked dead we got Dr Blum’s reasoned response and then Sue Nimms’ attempted rebuttal using Faux News Alt-right factoids.
More recently Bill Hastings (June 14) explained Conservatism in rational terms that sound like a basis for lokahi (figuring out where we can agree).
While I surely disagree with the things in the first letter, whichever way he meant it, there is an important message.  Many people would censor such content because they find it offensive. The beauty of free speech is that hate filled content is its own limitation. Some people use offensive language to affect, some by accident, some don’t know any better. I try to see past the offense to find a message. Funny how both extremes accuse WHT of bias.
I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it" Evelyn Beatrice Hall and Voltaire 
Bill Maher, an equal opportunity offender, has been in the news for a slip, we will see what happens. I took it as self-degradation. I would be offended if his insightful comedy died an ignominious death over one word. He is the modern King’s Court Jester, who aggressively points out that the Emperor has no clue, the liberals have no direction and the Media have no principles.  
Last month I quit the NRA.  The cover of American Rifleman “Do you have Trump’s back?” offended me and that’s not easy. Does he need my protection?  I told them why but doubt they care. They have a right to say it, and I, to not pay for it.  It was not a singular offense, but the culmination of a long train of abuses and usurpations pursuing an object not part of their core principals. It was hard to read the accompanying article: they implied that supporting him was the way to win his support for all NRA politics! He was the “Great god come from the skies. Take away everything and make everybody feel high” (apology to Bob Marley)

 NRA was formed for patriotic reasons, to improve army recruits. For 100 years, more or less, it stood as the defender of the second amendment which - here is where I annoy some liberal friends - is an essential part of our liberty.
"For a people who are free, and who mean to remain so, a well-organized and armed militia is their best security."  Thomas Jefferson
About twenty years ago the NRA pointed out that the Brady Bill had not lived up to its main promise.  Although about 800,000 misfeasors had been deterred from illegally buying a firearm from a licensed dealer, a felony, none had ever been arrested, not even one. I had the opportunity to verify that fact with the United States Attorney for the Southwestern District. He admitted that it was true until about a month before, since then they had arrested, due to the NRA publicity, so far a grand total of two.
The NRA has gone off mission. Instead of using politics to defend rights the NRA officers are using the second amendment to support their personal reactionary and perhaps racist politics. They hated Obama enough to blame him for things that never happened, never would happen. The irony here is that their criticism of Obama was good for their industry sponsors. Without a boogeyman for them to flog, gun and ammo sales have plunged.  I will have to find another organization to fulfill that mission, or convince the ACLU that the second amendment is still part of the Bill of Rights and Militia includes you and me.  
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a semi-monthly column for West Hawaii Today. E-mail obenskik@gmail.com